The US economy grew last year at the fastest pace since Ronald Reagan’s presidency, bouncing back from the brief 2020 recession. However, looking forward, to quote the prominent economist Ed Hyman, we are in “Unprecedented Times” and furthermore, for the future of our economy we “must accept the likelihood that outcomes will be particularly uncertain.”
These are “unprecedented times” – war, inflation, active Fed, etc. – all of which are creating more uncertainty than usual. We are watching the economic data and market signals carefully to see if the Fed can navigate a soft landing with declining inflation and a normalization in supply chain disruptions; thereby, decreasing the probability of a recession and allowing the economy to grow on into the future.